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Suspect SCIF, spying bonus not working
09-18-2014, 05:57 AM
Post: #11
RE: Suspect SCIF, spying bonus not working
(08-26-2014 02:31 AM)sfatula Wrote:  I have played around 50 turns in several games with SCIF where I had an amazing contact rating. I note chance of spy event is non existent or extremely low without amazing rating (easy to demonstrate, temporarily move the scif ship). With stationary ship and amazing rating, it's pretty easy to get 15% or more percentage chance. So, in the 50 turns (guesstimated) in the various games, I got one spy event. Yes, I know I could build more spies, etc., and, 15% isn't the highest chance. But over 50 or so turns, 15% yielding one result? Virtually impossible if you do that math.

I've been playtesting on a game to see if the numbers work out. I played for awhile at 50% success against, and was getting about 1 positive event out of every 2. That seemed to work.

I dropped down to 25%, and so far have 2 out of 14. I thought that was pretty low, but looked up the statistics.

http://www.ehow.com/info_8691020_binomia...excel.html

=BINOMDIST(2,14,0.25,TRUE) = 28.1%

That is still within reason.

Your example isn't impossible, but is unlikely. "But over 50 or so turns, 15% yielding one result? Virtually impossible if you do that math."

=BINOMDIST(1,50,0.15,TRUE) = 0.3%

If 2 of those events didn't elicit a response (say, you got a positive response that wasn't valid as described above but didn't get notified), the chance jumps up to 4.6%. Still low, unlucky, whatever you want to call it. But not impossible. I've also gathered intel when I was trying to steal something and not really noticed it - check your charts to see if you missed something in the sitrep.

I'll keep playing, and hopefully grab a larger sample size. The 50 percent success rate sample really seemed to work.
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09-19-2014, 05:41 AM
Post: #12
RE: Suspect SCIF, spying bonus not working
I did some formal testing in a pass-and-play.

I ran 100 turns with 2 players at 33.3 percent spy chance. Both had 25 spies and 3 SCIF ships to give amazing contact rating.

Player 1 had 28 positive hits, Player 2 had 24. Not quite up to the expected 33.3, but within reason.

I tried no SCIF, using 15 percent. I ran this 100 turns, then another 100.

Player 1 had 14 hits the first half, and 20 the second. Expected would be 15.
Player 2 had 14 hits the first half, and 28 the second half.

Combining all games, out of 600 turns there should be 33 + 33 + 15 +15 +15 +15 positive hits, or a total of 126. There were 128 if you add up the positive hits.

It seems to be working, at least empirically and in pass-and-play.

Note that there were long stretches of no hits (20 turns in a row) followed by hits every hits every other turn for the 15% test
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09-19-2014, 05:51 AM
Post: #13
RE: Suspect SCIF, spying bonus not working
Strange, yet, using your example of 15%, I got one hit. Perhaps I am just the unluckiest person alive. So, I gave up on spying, simply not worth it.

GC ID: E45y Rid3r
Season 1 Saturn Division Champion
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